Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 2 - 2 FC Barcelona?
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 90¢ · $813 held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 44%
1 arb excluded
$812.68
$133.38
91.7¢ → 89.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $257.09 | $264.09 | +$7.01 | 50% 48547-48163 (96710) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 10¢ | $174.43 | $183.15 | +$8.72 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 91.4¢ | $82.65 | $80.94 | -$1.72 | |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 92¢ | $193.2 | $187.95 | -$5.25 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $27.78 | $150 | +$122.22 | 25% 1314-3963 (5277) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 92.5¢ | $67.5 | $69.45 | +$1.95 | 52% 27203-24713 (51916) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $40.45 | $40 | -$0.45 | 48% 70249-75962 (146211) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $15.4 | $26.4 | +$11 | 48% 2117-2339 (4456) |
NM NM-PCTR | Yesavg 7¢ | $350 | $26.25 | +$1.75 | 57% 22335-16609 (38944) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $24.5 | $26.25 | +$1.75 | 57% 22226-16583 (38809) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $21.83 | $20.19 | +$0.11 | 57% 24661-18268 (42929) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $1.8 | $2.1 | +$0.3 | 47% 2072-2311 (4383) |
Invested
$257.09
Value
$264.09
PnL
+$7.01
Record
50%
48547-48163 (96710)
Both legs:
Invested
$193.2
Value
$187.95
PnL
-$5.25
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
Invested
$27.78
Value
$150
PnL
+$122.22
Record
25%
1314-3963 (5277)
Invested
$67.5
Value
$69.45
PnL
+$1.95
Record
52%
27203-24713 (51916)
Invested
$40.45
Value
$40
PnL
-$0.45
Record
48%
70249-75962 (146211)
Invested
$15.4
Value
$26.4
PnL
+$11
Record
48%
2117-2339 (4456)
Invested
$350
Value
$26.25
PnL
+$1.75
Record
57%
22335-16609 (38944)
Invested
$24.5
Value
$26.25
PnL
+$1.75
Record
57%
22226-16583 (38809)
Invested
$21.83
Value
$20.19
PnL
+$0.11
Record
57%
24661-18268 (42929)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$2.1
PnL
+$0.3
Record
47%
2072-2311 (4383)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.