Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 2 - 1 FC Barcelona?
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 88¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 73%
$3.1K
$31.91
92.8¢ → 87.5¢
-6% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 93¢ | $892.25 | $857.34 | -$34.91 | 50% 48547-48163 (96710) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 93¢ | $720.75 | $724.62 | +$3.87 | 57% 22335-16609 (38944) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 93¢ | $731.72 | $706.91 | -$24.81 | 57% 22226-16583 (38809) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 93.8¢ | $253.12 | $238.7 | -$14.43 | 46% 30568-35672 (66240) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 89¢ | $151.87 | $151.87 | +$0 | 49% 2142-2260 (4402) |
PA Pan9X | Noavg 92.1¢ | $138.2 | $131.25 | -$6.95 | 52% 27203-24713 (51916) |
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $27.78 | $130 | +$102.22 | 25% 1314-3963 (5277) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $46.5 | $44.5 | -$2 | 48% 70249-75962 (146211) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.8¢ | $38.42 | $43.14 | +$4.72 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.9¢ | $36.77 | $40.77 | +$4 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $34.09 | $34.28 | +$0.18 | 57% 24661-18268 (42929) |
Invested
$892.25
Value
$857.34
PnL
-$34.91
Record
50%
48547-48163 (96710)
Invested
$720.75
Value
$724.62
PnL
+$3.87
Record
57%
22335-16609 (38944)
Invested
$731.72
Value
$706.91
PnL
-$24.81
Record
57%
22226-16583 (38809)
Invested
$253.12
Value
$238.7
PnL
-$14.43
Record
46%
30568-35672 (66240)
Invested
$151.87
Value
$151.87
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
2142-2260 (4402)
Invested
$138.2
Value
$131.25
PnL
-$6.95
Record
52%
27203-24713 (51916)
Invested
$27.78
Value
$130
PnL
+$102.22
Record
25%
1314-3963 (5277)
Invested
$46.5
Value
$44.5
PnL
-$2
Record
48%
70249-75962 (146211)
Invested
$38.42
Value
$43.14
PnL
+$4.72
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$36.77
Value
$40.77
PnL
+$4
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
Invested
$34.09
Value
$34.28
PnL
+$0.18
Record
57%
24661-18268 (42929)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.