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6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 65¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Yes36¢No64¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

$788.35

Smart Money Entry

85.8¢ → 64.5¢

-25% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares10,555

Combined PnL+$1.6K

No6 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares5,401

Combined PnL-$769.95

Yes — 45%No — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Yesavg 16.2¢	$1.3K	$2.7K	+$1.4K	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 84.7¢	$2.5K	$2.1K	-$486.51	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
VE Venusian	Noavg 86.5¢	$1.2K	$913.73	-$269.25	47% 2177-2413 (4590)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 90¢	$791	$727.72	+$3.21	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$2.0K	$150	+$152.22	25% 1318-4001 (5319)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 78.6¢	$136.67	$119.1	-$17.56	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 91¢	$50	$45.5	+$0	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
0X 0x17bec72f65b07cacd12000a0ba0ba162b6b7c52bCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$36.19	$32.61	-$3.62	— 4-0 (4)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90¢	$33.36	$30.36	+$0.17	57% 24685-18276 (42961)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$8.7	$9.45	+$0.75	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$2.07	$2.31	+$0.24	49% 2208-2325 (4533)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,323.33

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,547.22

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$486.51

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

Venusian

Invested

$1,182.98

Value

$913.73

PnL

-$269.25

Record

47%

2177-2413 (4590)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$791

Value

$727.72

PnL

+$3.21

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,000

Value

$150

PnL

+$152.22

Record

25%

1318-4001 (5319)

38791873984189

Invested

$136.67

Value

$119.1

PnL

-$17.56

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$45.5

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

0x17bec72f65b07cacd12000a0ba0ba162b6b7c52bCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.19

Value

$32.61

PnL

-$3.62

Record

—

4-0 (4)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.36

Value

$30.36

PnL

+$0.17

Record

57%

24685-18276 (42961)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.7

Value

$9.45

PnL

+$0.75

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.07

Value

$2.31

PnL

+$0.24

Record

49%

2208-2325 (4533)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.