Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 1 FC Barcelona?

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 88¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

Yes12¢No88¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$174.16

Smart Money Entry

88.9¢ → 88¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,510

Combined PnL-$19.57

Yes9 traders

Total Value$471.26

Total Shares5,242

Combined PnL+$193.74

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Noavg 88¢	$622.62	$619.65	-$2.97	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 88¢	$483.71	$481.53	-$2.18	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 93.5¢	$191.5	$179.12	-$12.38	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$27.78	$170	+$142.22	25% 1314-3963 (5277)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Yesavg 8¢	$1.5K	$128	+$7.53	64% 2142-1184 (3326)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$76.16	$90.44	+$14.28	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$25.71	$46.04	+$20.34	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 94¢	$33.22	$31.1	-$2.12	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$16.38	$18.82	+$2.44	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91¢	$15.09	$13.81	+$0.08	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$5.93	$8.9	+$2.97	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$2.83	$5.66	+$2.83	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$1.27	$1.9	+$0.63	46% 30568-35672 (66240)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$1	$1.5	+$0.5	47% 2072-2311 (4383)

Limousin

Invested

$622.62

Value

$619.65

PnL

-$2.97

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

LightParadox

Invested

$483.71

Value

$481.53

PnL

-$2.18

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

38791873984189

Invested

$191.5

Value

$179.12

PnL

-$12.38

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$27.78

Value

$170

PnL

+$142.22

Record

25%

1314-3963 (5277)

darkumbreon88CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,505.88

Value

$128

PnL

+$7.53

Record

64%

2142-1184 (3326)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.16

Value

$90.44

PnL

+$14.28

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.71

Value

$46.04

PnL

+$20.34

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$33.22

Value

$31.1

PnL

-$2.12

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.38

Value

$18.82

PnL

+$2.44

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$15.09

Value

$13.81

PnL

+$0.08

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.93

Value

$8.9

PnL

+$2.97

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.83

Value

$5.66

PnL

+$2.83

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.27

Value

$1.9

PnL

+$0.63

Record

46%

30568-35672 (66240)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.