Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 0 FC Barcelona?
9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 97¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 75%
$5.0K
$51.32
96.4¢ → 96.8¢
+0% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Mature
17h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 96.4¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | +$4.73 | 50% 48547-48163 (96710) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 96.4¢ | $848.48 | $850.19 | +$1.71 | 57% 22335-16609 (38944) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 96.7¢ | $785.62 | $784.81 | -$0.81 | 48% 2081-2289 (4370) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 96.3¢ | $729.11 | $731.14 | +$2.03 | 57% 22226-16583 (38809) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $214.22 | $214.45 | +$0.23 | 48% 70249-75962 (146211) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 96.6¢ | $210.92 | $210.81 | -$0.11 | 32% 21135-45368 (66503) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 96.7¢ | $208.48 | $208.52 | +$0.05 | 48% 2117-2339 (4456) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $24.78 | $68 | +$43.22 | 25% 1314-3963 (5277) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $49.61 | $49.96 | +$0.34 | 57% 24661-18268 (42929) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $49.07 | $11.63 | +$0.23 | 52% 27203-24713 (51916) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $9.48 | $9.62 | +$0.14 | 49% 2142-2260 (4402) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.9¢ | $14.96 | $3.76 | -$0.44 | 62% 35853-22264 (58117) |
Invested
$1,958.68
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$4.73
Record
50%
48547-48163 (96710)
Invested
$848.48
Value
$850.19
PnL
+$1.71
Record
57%
22335-16609 (38944)
Invested
$785.62
Value
$784.81
PnL
-$0.81
Record
48%
2081-2289 (4370)
Invested
$729.11
Value
$731.14
PnL
+$2.03
Record
57%
22226-16583 (38809)
Invested
$214.22
Value
$214.45
PnL
+$0.23
Record
48%
70249-75962 (146211)
Invested
$210.92
Value
$210.81
PnL
-$0.11
Record
32%
21135-45368 (66503)
Invested
$208.48
Value
$208.52
PnL
+$0.05
Record
48%
2117-2339 (4456)
Invested
$24.78
Value
$68
PnL
+$43.22
Record
25%
1314-3963 (5277)
Invested
$49.61
Value
$49.96
PnL
+$0.34
Record
57%
24661-18268 (42929)
Invested
$49.07
Value
$11.63
PnL
+$0.23
Record
52%
27203-24713 (51916)
Invested
$9.48
Value
$9.62
PnL
+$0.14
Record
49%
2142-2260 (4402)
Invested
$14.96
Value
$3.76
PnL
-$0.44
Record
62%
35853-22264 (58117)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.