Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 0 - 2 FC Barcelona?
9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 95¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 82%
$5.5K
$98.82
94.5¢ → 94.8¢
+0% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+2 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 47%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 94.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | +$7.49 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 94.7¢ | $965.64 | $912.53 | +$0.6 | 50% 48547-48163 (96710) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 94.5¢ | $830.15 | $832.64 | +$2.49 | 48% 70249-75962 (146211) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 94.9¢ | $787.39 | $798.4 | +$1.47 | 48% 2117-2339 (4456) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 94.5¢ | $747.47 | $750.08 | +$2.61 | 57% 22226-16583 (38809) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 94.6¢ | $506.55 | $507.53 | +$0.98 | 57% 22335-16609 (38944) |
SE sentrio | Noavg 94.3¢ | $295.35 | $296.76 | +$1.41 | 50% 27934-27381 (55315) |
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $2.0K | $109.48 | +$81.84 | 25% 1314-3963 (5277) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.4¢ | $38.09 | $38.25 | +$0.16 | 57% 24661-18268 (42929) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $15.09 | $9.48 | +$0.07 | 52% 27203-24713 (51916) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.5¢ | $5.63 | $5.32 | -$0.31 | 47% 2072-2311 (4383) |
Invested
$1,362.65
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$7.49
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
Invested
$965.64
Value
$912.53
PnL
+$0.6
Record
50%
48547-48163 (96710)
Invested
$830.15
Value
$832.64
PnL
+$2.49
Record
48%
70249-75962 (146211)
Invested
$787.39
Value
$798.4
PnL
+$1.47
Record
48%
2117-2339 (4456)
Invested
$747.47
Value
$750.08
PnL
+$2.61
Record
57%
22226-16583 (38809)
Invested
$506.55
Value
$507.53
PnL
+$0.98
Record
57%
22335-16609 (38944)
Invested
$295.35
Value
$296.76
PnL
+$1.41
Record
50%
27934-27381 (55315)
Invested
$2,000
Value
$109.48
PnL
+$81.84
Record
25%
1314-3963 (5277)
Invested
$38.09
Value
$38.25
PnL
+$0.16
Record
57%
24661-18268 (42929)
Invested
$15.09
Value
$9.48
PnL
+$0.07
Record
52%
27203-24713 (51916)
Invested
$5.63
Value
$5.32
PnL
-$0.31
Record
47%
2072-2311 (4383)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.