Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 0 - 0 FC Barcelona?
6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 55%
$5.2K
-$695.38
97.7¢ → 100¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 97.5¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$11.21 | 50% 48547-48163 (96710) |
 RN1 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$43.07 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 97.7¢ | $801.14 | $819.59 | +$18.45 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 97.5¢ | $505.45 | $518.15 | +$12.7 | 47% 2072-2311 (4383) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 99.8¢ | $461.13 | $451.36 | -$9.76 | 57% 22335-16609 (38944) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $35.95 | $36.82 | +$0.87 | 48% 2117-2339 (4456) |
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $796.8 | $36.73 | -$760.07 | 25% 1314-3963 (5277) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $27.08 | $24.61 | -$2.47 | 45% 14423-17722 (32145) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $5.06 | $0.11 | -$4.95 | 57% 22226-16583 (38809) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $3.74 | $0.09 | -$3.66 | 49% 2142-2260 (4402) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $0.77 | $0.02 | -$0.75 | 57% 24661-18268 (42929) |
Invested
$1,720.8
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$11.21
Record
50%
48547-48163 (96710)
RN1Invested
$1,522.15
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$43.07
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
Invested
$801.14
Value
$819.59
PnL
+$18.45
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
Invested
$505.45
Value
$518.15
PnL
+$12.7
Record
47%
2072-2311 (4383)
Invested
$461.13
Value
$451.36
PnL
-$9.76
Record
57%
22335-16609 (38944)
Invested
$35.95
Value
$36.82
PnL
+$0.87
Record
48%
2117-2339 (4456)
Invested
$796.8
Value
$36.73
PnL
-$760.07
Record
25%
1314-3963 (5277)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$27.08
Value
$24.61
PnL
-$2.47
Record
45%
14423-17722 (32145)
Invested
$5.06
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$4.95
Record
57%
22226-16583 (38809)
Invested
$3.74
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$3.66
Record
49%
2142-2260 (4402)
Invested
$0.77
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.75
Record
57%
24661-18268 (42929)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.