Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 72¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 33%
$9.7K
-$9.22
72¢ → 71.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Yesavg 72¢ | $6.6K | $6.6K | -$46.33 | 46% 8770-10464 (19234) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 28.1¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$27.66 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
GC GC-PCTR | Noavg 27¢ | $265.87 | $270.8 | +$4.92 | 64% 10184-5783 (15967) |
SE sentrioCTR | Noavg 28¢ | $257.82 | $262.42 | +$4.6 | 50% 26504-26107 (52611) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Noavg 30¢ | $179.88 | $170.71 | -$9.16 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
DV dv-pmCTR | Noavg 30¢ | $140.24 | $137.77 | +$2.34 | 48% 3364-3590 (6954) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Yesavg 72¢ | $37.29 | $36.97 | -$0.31 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 70¢ | $200.65 | $4.2 | +$7.1 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $2.21 | $2.17 | -$0.04 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
nigiri99Invested
$6,598.59
Value
$6.6K
PnL
-$46.33
Record
46%
8770-10464 (19234)
Invested
$2,190.99
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$27.66
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$265.87
Value
$270.8
PnL
+$4.92
Record
64%
10184-5783 (15967)
Invested
$257.82
Value
$262.42
PnL
+$4.6
Record
50%
26504-26107 (52611)
Invested
$179.88
Value
$170.71
PnL
-$9.16
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Invested
$140.24
Value
$137.77
PnL
+$2.34
Record
48%
3364-3590 (6954)
Invested
$37.29
Value
$36.97
PnL
-$0.31
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
VeryLucky888Invested
$200.65
Value
$4.2
PnL
+$7.1
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Invested
$2.21
Value
$2.17
PnL
-$0.04
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.