Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-3.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Levante UD (57%) · Levante UD at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Club Atlético de Madrid<1¢Levante UD>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Levante UD

Consensus Traders

Levante UD 57%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$67.1

Smart Money Entry

91.6¢ → 99.5¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralLevante UD at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Levante UD

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Club Atlético de Madrid1%

Levante UD100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Levante UD4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,223

Combined PnL+$68.45

Club Atlético de Madrid3 traders

Total Value$7.13

Total Shares82

Combined PnL-$1.35

Levante UD — 57%Club Atlético de Madrid — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Levante UDavg 91.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$69.39	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Levante UDavg 90¢	$42.3	$43.71	+$1.41	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
HRTrading<$100	Levante UDavg 94.9¢	$22.87	$20.62	-$2.25	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Levante UDavg 95¢	$4.75	$4.65	-$0.1	36% 15601-27545 (43146)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Club Atlético de Madridavg 10.9¢	$6.66	$3.97	-$2.7	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Club Atlético de Madridavg 9.1¢	$1.49	$2.87	+$1.37	57% 13805-10579 (24384)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Club Atlético de Madridavg 7¢	$0.32	$0.3	-$0.02	50% 25098-24836 (49934)

UpTheBlues

Levante UD

Invested

$1,055.45

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$69.39

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Levante UD

Invested

$42.3

Value

$43.71

PnL

+$1.41

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

HRTrading<$100

Levante UD

Invested

$22.87

Value

$20.62

PnL

-$2.25

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Levante UD

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$0.1

Record

36%

15601-27545 (43146)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Club Atlético de Madrid

Invested

$6.66

Value

$3.97

PnL

-$2.7

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Club Atlético de Madrid

Invested

$1.49

Value

$2.87

PnL

+$1.37

Record

57%

13805-10579 (24384)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Club Atlético de Madrid

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

Research grade

NeutralLevante UD at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Levante UD

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Levante UD wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.