Levante UD vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: 1st Half O/U 1.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$356.68

Smart Money Entry

84.7¢ → 100¢

+18% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,512

Combined PnL+$371.34

Over3 traders

Total Value$48.05

Total Shares219

Combined PnL-$14.67

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 95.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$57.03	72% 2405-930 (3335)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 68.9¢	$582.11	$840.65	+$258.54	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
ZaiZoiBele	Underavg 88.9¢	$450.69	$381.83	+$32.38	80% 5044-1245 (6289)
MI MinevaJ<$100	Underavg 70.7¢	$53	$69.97	+$20.72	58% 1008-738 (1746)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$51.6	$48	-$1.2	50% 7031-7023 (14054)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 67¢	$4.05	$6.05	+$1.99	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 77¢	$2.31	$3	+$0.69	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$12.09	$0.05	-$12.04	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 24¢	$1.43	$0	-$1.42	59% 30472-21186 (51658)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$1,152.16

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$57.03

Record

72%

2405-930 (3335)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$582.11

Value

$840.65

PnL

+$258.54

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

ZaiZoiBele

Under

Invested

$450.69

Value

$381.83

PnL

+$32.38

Record

80%

5044-1245 (6289)

MinevaJ<$100

Under

Invested

$53

Value

$69.97

PnL

+$20.72

Record

58%

1008-738 (1746)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$51.6

Value

$48

PnL

-$1.2

Record

50%

7031-7023 (14054)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$4.05

Value

$6.05

PnL

+$1.99

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$2.31

Value

PnL

+$0.69

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.09

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$12.04

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.43

Value

PnL

-$1.42

Record

59%

30472-21186 (51658)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.