Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Levante UD 0 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $52 held · ended Oct 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$51.52

Combined PnL

-$80.13

Smart Money Entry

5.2¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$40.83

Total Shares2,037

Combined PnL-$80.01

No2 traders

Total Value$10.69

Total Shares11

Combined PnL-$0.12

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$26.96	$40.14	-$2.28	50% 7031-7023 (14054)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.99	$6	+$0	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$4.82	$4.7	-$0.12	36% 15601-27545 (43146)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.7¢	$78.23	$0.69	-$77.54	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$0.19	$0	-$0.19	49% 7973-8309 (16282)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.96

Value

$40.14

PnL

-$2.28

Record

50%

7031-7023 (14054)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$5.99

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$4.82

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$0.12

Record

36%

15601-27545 (43146)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.23

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$77.54

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

PnL

-$0.19

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.