Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$5.6K
$130.84
95.9¢ → 100¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dashattacker | Underavg 92.7¢ | $2.2K | $2.3K | +$168.25 | 72% 2539-970 (3509) |
ZX zxc368 | Underavg 99.9¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$1 | 98% 13358-214 (13572) |
MI MinevaJ | Underavg 98.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$14.88 | 57% 1048-784 (1832) |
TO topdogbigboi | Underavg 74.8¢ | $141.25 | $183.05 | +$41.8 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
 eskilloCTR<$100 | Overavg 6¢ | $17.74 | $0.15 | -$17.6 | 42% 599-832 (1431) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 28.5¢ | $77.63 | $0.14 | -$77.49 | 49% 13013-13570 (26583) |
Invested
$2,153.61
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$168.25
Record
72%
2539-970 (3509)
Invested
$2,004.26
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$1
Record
98%
13358-214 (13572)
Invested
$1,116.12
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$14.88
Record
57%
1048-784 (1832)
Invested
$141.25
Value
$183.05
PnL
+$41.8
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
eskilloCTR<$100Invested
$17.74
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$17.6
Record
42%
599-832 (1431)
Invested
$77.63
Value
$0.14
PnL
-$77.49
Record
49%
13013-13570 (26583)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.