Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-11-07?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 60¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$12.82

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 59.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,033

Combined PnL+$13.34

Yes4 traders

Total Value$541.53

Total Shares1,339

Combined PnL-$0.51

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

87h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Noavg 60.2¢	$719.22	$704.77	+$5.97	49% 1684-1757 (3441)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 40¢	$363	$363	-$0	50% 28752-28575 (57327)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 58.7¢	$303.55	$307.86	+$4.31	51% 26669-25270 (51939)
CA Cannae	Noavg 58.7¢	$185.91	$187.02	-$0.22	53% 16952-15078 (32030)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Yesavg 40¢	$142.56	$142.56	+$0	64% 2022-1128 (3150)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$26.91	$26.45	-$0.16	50% 26223-25873 (52096)
WA waiermaCTR<$100	Yesavg 43.2¢	$10.29	$9.52	-$0.36	45% 95-117 (212)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 57.1¢	$141.43	$4.52	+$3.27	58% 47221-34058 (81279)

LightParadox

Invested

$719.22

Value

$704.77

PnL

+$5.97

Record

49%

1684-1757 (3441)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$363

Value

$363

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

28752-28575 (57327)

Flaznorp

Invested

$303.55

Value

$307.86

PnL

+$4.31

Record

51%

26669-25270 (51939)

Cannae

Invested

$185.91

Value

$187.02

PnL

-$0.22

Record

53%

16952-15078 (32030)

darkumbreon88CTR

Yes

Invested

$142.56

Value

$142.56

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

2022-1128 (3150)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.91

Value

$26.45

PnL

-$0.16

Record

50%

26223-25873 (52096)

waiermaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.29

Value

$9.52

PnL

-$0.36

Record

45%

95-117 (212)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$141.43

Value

$4.52

PnL

+$3.27

Record

58%

47221-34058 (81279)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

87h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.