Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña: Both Teams to Score
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 47¢ · $481 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
1 arb excluded
$481.06
$1.19
46¢ → 46.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $200 | $198 | +$0 | — 1-0 (1) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50¢ | $100 | $106 | +$7 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50¢ | $100 | $92 | -$7 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 46¢ | $166.76 | $166.94 | +$0.18 | 58% 47486-34282 (81768) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $93.21 | $94.02 | +$0.82 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $16.96 | $17.13 | +$0.17 | 58% 21687-15792 (37479) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $2.65 | +$0 | 50% 26397-26018 (52415) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.33 | +$0.03 | 56% 8222-6527 (14749) |
Invested
$200
Value
$198
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$166.76
Value
$166.94
PnL
+$0.18
Record
58%
47486-34282 (81768)
Invested
$93.21
Value
$94.02
PnL
+$0.82
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
Invested
$16.96
Value
$17.13
PnL
+$0.17
Record
58%
21687-15792 (37479)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.65
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
26397-26018 (52415)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.33
PnL
+$0.03
Record
56%
8222-6527 (14749)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.