Will RC Deportivo A Coruña win on 2026-11-02?

15 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (94%) · No at 55¢ · $76K held · ends Nov 2

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 94%

Total Value

$75.6K

Combined PnL

$439.01

Smart Money Entry

54.2¢ → 54.5¢

+1% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 55%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 16 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$75.6K

Total Shares138,647

Combined PnL+$438.98

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3

Total Shares7

Combined PnL+$0.03

No — 94%Yes — 6%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

94% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 91% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KY Kyn008	Noavg 54¢	$29.6K	$29.8K	+$273.75	49% 272-283 (555)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Noavg 54¢	$16.2K	$16.4K	+$150	47% 2622-2922 (5544)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 54.5¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	+$0	58% 43600-31711 (75311)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 54.7¢	$5.3K	$5.4K	-$19.07	51% 17613-16616 (34229)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 54.5¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	-$2.09	72% 6934-2740 (9674)
us391	Noavg 54¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$21.28	51% 1748-1710 (3458)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 54.5¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$1.1	50% 26428-26255 (52683)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 55¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$20.27	49% 13479-14174 (27653)
CA Cannae	Noavg 54.2¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$7.62	53% 16258-14439 (30697)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 54¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$15	53% 5749-5085 (10834)
HI hi774c	Noavg 54¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$10.83	51% 4852-4595 (9447)
SE sentrio	Noavg 54.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0.17	50% 25000-24720 (49720)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 54.3¢	$834.31	$837.67	+$3.36	46% 9226-10935 (20161)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 54.5¢	$161.6	$161.48	-$0.11	47% 13002-14566 (27568)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 54.7¢	$106.29	$105.91	-$0.38	57% 17248-12904 (30152)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$2.97	$3	+$0.03	53% 2312-2037 (4349)

Kyn008

Invested

$29,565.3

Value

$29.8K

PnL

+$273.75

Record

49%

272-283 (555)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Invested

$16,200

Value

$16.4K

PnL

+$150

Record

47%

2622-2922 (5544)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$5,480.2

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

43600-31711 (75311)

Flaznorp

Invested

$5,282.13

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$19.07

Record

51%

17613-16616 (34229)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$5,034.74

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$2.09

Record

72%

6934-2740 (9674)

us391

Invested

$2,297.98

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$21.28

Record

51%

1748-1710 (3458)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,296.21

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$1.1

Record

50%

26428-26255 (52683)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$2,230.22

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$20.27

Record

49%

13479-14174 (27653)

Cannae

Invested

$1,648.65

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$7.62

Record

53%

16258-14439 (30697)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$1,620

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

5749-5085 (10834)

hi774c

Invested

$1,169.92

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$10.83

Record

51%

4852-4595 (9447)

sentrio

Invested

$1,135.59

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0.17

Record

50%

25000-24720 (49720)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$834.31

Value

$837.67

PnL

+$3.36

Record

46%

9226-10935 (20161)

38791873984189

Invested

$161.6

Value

$161.48

PnL

-$0.11

Record

47%

13002-14566 (27568)

ghorrock

Invested

$106.29

Value

$105.91

PnL

-$0.38

Record

57%

17248-12904 (30152)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.97

Value

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

2312-2037 (4349)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 55%

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

15 of 16 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

94% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 91% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.