RC Deportivo A Coruña vs. CA Osasuna: Both Teams to Score
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 51¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
2 arb excluded
$4.0K
-$6.3
50.7¢ → 50.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$20.98 | 51% 17613-16616 (34229) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 49¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$11.43 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50¢ | $954.46 | $964 | +$9.54 | |
 nigiri99 | Noavg 51¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$14.71 | 46% 7287-8597 (15884) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 49¢ | $230.86 | $238 | +$7.14 | 72% 6934-2740 (9674) |
CA CannaeARB<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $137.73 | $137.73 | +$1.39 | 53% 16258-14439 (30697) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 49¢ | $78.41 | $78.41 | +$0.8 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50¢ | $59.33 | $59.33 | +$0.59 | |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $41.65 | $42.5 | +$1.28 | 46% 9226-10935 (20161) |
Invested
$2,074.82
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$20.98
Record
51%
17613-16616 (34229)
Both legs:
nigiri99Invested
$1,500.93
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$14.71
Record
46%
7287-8597 (15884)
Invested
$230.86
Value
$238
PnL
+$7.14
Record
72%
6934-2740 (9674)
Invested
$137.73
Value
$137.73
PnL
+$1.39
Record
53%
16258-14439 (30697)
Both legs:
Invested
$41.65
Value
$42.5
PnL
+$1.28
Record
46%
9226-10935 (20161)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.