Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 10 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-11-08?

10 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 45¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 8

Yes56¢No44¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.6K

Combined PnL

-$44.67

Smart Money Entry

46.6¢ → 44.5¢

-5% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 18 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares13,693

Combined PnL+$54.43

Yes8 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares6,947

Combined PnL-$99.1

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 47¢	$8.5K	$4.0K	+$42.3	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
AN Anon455	Yesavg 55¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$24.56	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 45.3¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$0.64	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
└ No leg	Noavg 45.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$4.67
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54.9¢	$777.2	$771.89	-$5.31
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 48¢	$722.53	$707.58	-$14.95	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 45.7¢	$529.46	$527.16	-$2.3	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 45.1¢	$450.09	$455.32	+$5.22	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 56.3¢	$448.54	$434.44	-$14.1	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 46¢	$293.58	$296.37	+$2.79	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 45.6¢	$267.87	$270.01	+$2.14	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ No leg	Noavg 45.6¢	$158.56	$158.17	-$0.39
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53.3¢	$109.31	$111.84	+$2.53
PT PT-S7	Yesavg 58¢	$202.43	$205.24	+$2.81	46% 3487-4014 (7501)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Yesavg 57¢	$208.12	$200.86	-$7.26	46% 1957-2309 (4266)
SP spyGoodLuck77	Yesavg 72.3¢	$221.21	$166.78	-$54.43	62% 2044-1228 (3272)
RN1CTR	Noavg 45¢	$158.56	$160.45	+$1.89	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
SE sentrioCTR	Noavg 47.2¢	$150.51	$150.68	+$0.17	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 47¢	$252.53	$129.92	+$1.7	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$98.01	$51.46	-$0.49	65% 2130-1169 (3299)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Yesavg 55.6¢	$46.75	$45.81	-$0.94	53% 15441-13720 (29161)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$27	$45.5	+$18.5	47% 8606-9734 (18340)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$27.1	$26.21	-$0.88	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
PA Pan9X<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$25	$13.13	-$0.13	52% 27099-24604 (51703)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$8,458.33

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$42.3

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Anon455

Yes

Invested

$2,757.54

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$24.56

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$2,001.61

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$0.64

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Both legs:

No$1,224.4145.3¢+$4.67

Yes$777.254.9¢-$5.31

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$722.53

Value

$707.58

PnL

-$14.95

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$529.46

Value

$527.16

PnL

-$2.3

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$450.09

Value

$455.32

PnL

+$5.22

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$448.54

Value

$434.44

PnL

-$14.1

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$293.58

Value

$296.37

PnL

+$2.79

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$267.87

Value

$270.01

PnL

+$2.14

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

No$158.5645.6¢-$0.39

Yes$109.3153.3¢+$2.53

PT-S7

Yes

Invested

$202.43

Value

$205.24

PnL

+$2.81

Record

46%

3487-4014 (7501)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Yes

Invested

$208.12

Value

$200.86

PnL

-$7.26

Record

46%

1957-2309 (4266)

spyGoodLuck77

Yes

Invested

$221.21

Value

$166.78

PnL

-$54.43

Record

62%

2044-1228 (3272)

RN1CTR

Invested

$158.56

Value

$160.45

PnL

+$1.89

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

sentrioCTR

Invested

$150.51

Value

$150.68

PnL

+$0.17

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$252.53

Value

$129.92

PnL

+$1.7

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.01

Value

$51.46

PnL

-$0.49

Record

65%

2130-1169 (3299)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.75

Value

$45.81

PnL

-$0.94

Record

53%

15441-13720 (29161)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Invested

$27

Value

$45.5

PnL

+$18.5

Record

47%

8606-9734 (18340)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$27.1

Value

$26.21

PnL

-$0.88

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

Pan9X<$100

Yes

Invested

$25

Value

$13.13

PnL

-$0.13

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 18 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.