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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.

Real Betis Balompié vs. Málaga CF: 1st Half O/U 0.5

Resolved Over. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Under 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$648

Combined PnL

$-2.8K

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$128

Total Shares128

Combined PnL+$34.91

Under6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,070

Combined PnL$-2.8K

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609ARB<$100	Overavg 98¢	$510.12	$520	+$9.88	82% 2398-544 (2942)
└ Over leg	Overavg 98¢	$509.6	$520	+$10.4
└ Under leg	Underavg 0.1¢	$0.52	—	-$0.52
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 61¢	$93.09	$128	+$34.91	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 56.8¢	$4.7K	—	$-2.7K	72% 2430-936 (3366)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$0.19	—	-$0.19	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
MI MinevaJCTR	Underavg 37¢	$332	—	-$122.84	58% 1027-753 (1780)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 34.8¢	$1.06	—	-$1.06	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	—	—	+$0	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
RN1<$100	Overavg 45.2¢	—	—	+$0	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	—	—	+$0	59% 30499-21212 (51711)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609ARB<$100

Invested

$510.12

Value

$520

PnL

+$9.88

Record

82%

2398-544 (2942)

Both legs:

Over$509.698¢+$10.4

Under$0.520.1¢-$0.52

Invested

$93.09

Value

$128

PnL

+$34.91

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

dashattackerCTR

Invested

$4,715.61

Value

—

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

72%

2430-936 (3366)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$0.19

Value

—

PnL

-$0.19

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

Invested

$332

Value

—

PnL

-$122.84

Record

58%

1027-753 (1780)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.06

Value

—

PnL

-$1.06

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

30499-21212 (51711)

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa493249e...bd5dc5

Slug

lal-bet-mala-2026-10-31-first-half-total-0pt5

Traders in this Market

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609

Arbitrage — excluded

topdogbigboi

Over — $128

dashattacker

Under — $0

poshposh

Under — $0

MinevaJ

Under — $0

HRTrading

Under — $0

UpTheBlues

Under — $0

RN1

Over — $0

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Under — $0

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