Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (91%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-11-22?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 9.0¢ · $310 held · ends Nov 22
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 33%
$310.36
$9.93
Research grade
AvoidYes at 9%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 7.6¢ | $211.52 | $208.55 | +$10.94 | 50% 1275-1295 (2570) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $92.71 | $91.71 | -$1.01 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $10.11 | $10.11 | +$0 | 47% 171-192 (363) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.