FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: 1st Half O/U 2.5

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$174.99

Smart Money Entry

97.5¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,205

Combined PnL+$68.26

Under8 traders

Total Value$357.62

Total Shares1,140

Combined PnL-$243.25

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$2.02	98% 13088-209 (13297)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 42.4¢	$279.75	$114.32	-$165.42	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 52.6¢	$106.39	$98.07	-$8.32	72% 2430-936 (3366)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 67¢	$79.06	$86.73	+$7.67	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 33¢	$23.23	$63.97	+$40.74	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
MI MinevaJCTR<$100	Underavg 34.3¢	$41.27	$42.08	+$0.81	58% 1027-753 (1780)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 33¢	$10.91	$33.01	+$22.1	50% 7036-7035 (14071)
RO Rocko33<$100	Overavg 90¢	$16.34	$16.79	+$0.45	64% 1125-646 (1771)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 39¢	$11.51	$15.21	+$3.69	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 31.9¢	$41.85	$14.13	-$27.72	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 30¢	$6.44	$5.69	-$0.75	50% 19212-19597 (38809)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$0.9	$2.25	+$1.35	47% 4586-5092 (9678)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 51.6¢	$35.91	$0.03	-$35.88	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 61¢	$15.74	$0.01	-$15.73	48% 943-1015 (1958)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$4,035.02

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$2.02

Record

98%

13088-209 (13297)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$279.75

Value

$114.32

PnL

-$165.42

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$106.39

Value

$98.07

PnL

-$8.32

Record

72%

2430-936 (3366)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$79.06

Value

$86.73

PnL

+$7.67

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$23.23

Value

$63.97

PnL

+$40.74

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

MinevaJCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.27

Value

$42.08

PnL

+$0.81

Record

58%

1027-753 (1780)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$10.91

Value

$33.01

PnL

+$22.1

Record

50%

7036-7035 (14071)

Rocko33<$100

Over

Invested

$16.34

Value

$16.79

PnL

+$0.45

Record

64%

1125-646 (1771)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$11.51

Value

$15.21

PnL

+$3.69

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.85

Value

$14.13

PnL

-$27.72

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$6.44

Value

$5.69

PnL

-$0.75

Record

50%

19212-19597 (38809)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.9

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$1.35

Record

47%

4586-5092 (9678)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.91

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$35.88

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.74

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$15.73

Record

48%

943-1015 (1958)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.