Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 89¢ · $417 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$416.91
$182.75
67¢ → 89¢
+33% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
204h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Optimus- | Noavg 66¢ | $131.97 | $176.96 | +$47.99 | 61% 1197-759 (1956) |
 Parz1vaI | Noavg 71¢ | $118.88 | $111.34 | -$7.53 | 72% 3490-1330 (4820) |
SI singularitymanCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.9¢ | $56.91 | $57.96 | +$1.04 | 42% 137-192 (329) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 31.8¢ | $337.02 | $46.72 | +$136.55 | 36% 15157-27275 (42432) |
LI lineth<$100 | Noavg 53.4¢ | $19.24 | $23.94 | +$4.7 | 41% 243-350 (593) |
Optimus-Invested
$131.97
Value
$176.96
PnL
+$47.99
Record
61%
1197-759 (1956)
Parz1vaIInvested
$118.88
Value
$111.34
PnL
-$7.53
Record
72%
3490-1330 (4820)
Invested
$56.91
Value
$57.96
PnL
+$1.04
Record
42%
137-192 (329)
Invested
$337.02
Value
$46.72
PnL
+$136.55
Record
36%
15157-27275 (42432)
Invested
$19.24
Value
$23.94
PnL
+$4.7
Record
41%
243-350 (593)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.