Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC win on 2026-11-07?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 30¢ · $221 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$220.5
$2.14
39.8¢ → 30¢
-25% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 30%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 59.2¢ | $62.67 | $62.44 | -$0.53 | 50% 1808-1796 (3604) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $61.97 | $61.97 | -$0 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 57.2¢ | $48.07 | $49.56 | +$0.42 | 48% 1730-1861 (3591) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $22.84 | $24.85 | +$2.01 | 50% 28862-28672 (57534) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $14.42 | $14.42 | +$0 | 50% 26346-25970 (52316) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $4.2 | $4.2 | -$0.35 | 58% 47408-34193 (81601) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $2.48 | $3.06 | +$0.58 | 51% 6508-6273 (12781) |
Invested
$62.67
Value
$62.44
PnL
-$0.53
Record
50%
1808-1796 (3604)
Invested
$61.97
Value
$61.97
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
Invested
$48.07
Value
$49.56
PnL
+$0.42
Record
48%
1730-1861 (3591)
Invested
$22.84
Value
$24.85
PnL
+$2.01
Record
50%
28862-28672 (57534)
Invested
$14.42
Value
$14.42
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
26346-25970 (52316)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$4.2
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$0.35
Record
58%
47408-34193 (81601)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$2.48
Value
$3.06
PnL
+$0.58
Record
51%
6508-6273 (12781)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.