Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. FC Anyang end in a draw?
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 75¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 80%
$1.0K
-$16.04
69.6¢ → 75¢
+8% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 71.1¢ | $666.89 | $623.56 | -$43.33 | 50% 28862-28672 (57534) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 69¢ | $139.35 | $150.28 | +$10.93 | 48% 62298-67159 (129457) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 63.6¢ | $127.79 | $146.72 | +$18.93 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.2¢ | $36.34 | $35.6 | -$0.75 | 51% 6508-6273 (12781) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 69.6¢ | $26.46 | $25.27 | -$1.19 | 54% 10365-8691 (19056) |
 dips.<$100 | Noavg 62.2¢ | $18.03 | $17.54 | -$0.49 | 47% 10970-12572 (23542) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $14.4 | $13.12 | -$1.28 | 49% 1756-1850 (3606) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 71.4¢ | $11.99 | $12.51 | +$0.52 | 58% 47408-34193 (81601) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $10 | $10.49 | +$0.49 | 53% 2679-2359 (5038) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $3.6 | $3.73 | +$0.13 | 50% 26346-25970 (52316) |
Invested
$666.89
Value
$623.56
PnL
-$43.33
Record
50%
28862-28672 (57534)
Invested
$139.35
Value
$150.28
PnL
+$10.93
Record
48%
62298-67159 (129457)
Invested
$127.79
Value
$146.72
PnL
+$18.93
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$36.34
Value
$35.6
PnL
-$0.75
Record
51%
6508-6273 (12781)
Invested
$26.46
Value
$25.27
PnL
-$1.19
Record
54%
10365-8691 (19056)
dips.<$100Invested
$18.03
Value
$17.54
PnL
-$0.49
Record
47%
10970-12572 (23542)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$13.12
PnL
-$1.28
Record
49%
1756-1850 (3606)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$11.99
Value
$12.51
PnL
+$0.52
Record
58%
47408-34193 (81601)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$10
Value
$10.49
PnL
+$0.49
Record
53%
2679-2359 (5038)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.73
PnL
+$0.13
Record
50%
26346-25970 (52316)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.