Pohang Steelers FC vs. Gimcheon Sangmu FC: Both Teams to Score
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 53¢ · $1K held · ended Sep 9
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.0K
$99.63
47.1¢ → 52.5¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 47.1¢ | $876.74 | $977.55 | +$100.81 | 58% 50265-36309 (86574) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $24.54 | $20.48 | -$1.51 | 58% 45420-32909 (78329) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.63 | +$0.42 | 35% 18059-33813 (51872) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.63 | +$0.08 | 51% 1789-1707 (3496) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.38 | -$0.17 | 74% 2420-861 (3281) |
Invested
$876.74
Value
$977.55
PnL
+$100.81
Record
58%
50265-36309 (86574)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$24.54
Value
$20.48
PnL
-$1.51
Record
58%
45420-32909 (78329)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.63
PnL
+$0.42
Record
35%
18059-33813 (51872)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.63
PnL
+$0.08
Record
51%
1789-1707 (3496)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.38
PnL
-$0.17
Record
74%
2420-861 (3281)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.