Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (66%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Incheon United FC vs. Bucheon FC 1995: O/U 1.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 35¢ · $242 held · ended Sep 8
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$241.57
$18.91
31.5¢ → 34.5¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 66%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 31¢ | $140.14 | $129.35 | +$23.37 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
FE ferrariChampions2026<$100 | Overavg 77.9¢ | $51.64 | $43.4 | -$8.24 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100 | Underavg 30¢ | $30 | $34.5 | +$4.5 | 51% 2062-2000 (4062) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 33.1¢ | $18.2 | $18.97 | +$0.78 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 38.9¢ | $23.8 | $15.35 | -$1.5 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
Invested
$140.14
Value
$129.35
PnL
+$23.37
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$51.64
Value
$43.4
PnL
-$8.24
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
Invested
$30
Value
$34.5
PnL
+$4.5
Record
51%
2062-2000 (4062)
Invested
$18.2
Value
$18.97
PnL
+$0.78
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Invested
$23.8
Value
$15.35
PnL
-$1.5
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.