Kimberly Powell announced resignation or removal by November 30, 2026?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
-$291.3
57.4¢ → 52.5¢
-8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+15 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO Monopoly_Money | Noavg 58.3¢ | $1.8K | $1.5K | -$332.69 | 0% 0-48 (48) |
 KimchiCapital | Noavg 51.9¢ | $267.21 | $340 | +$72.79 | — 9-0 (9) |
 0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802 | Noavg 59¢ | $118 | $97 | -$21 | — 1-0 (1) |
LI lissartterCTR | Yesavg 49.5¢ | $103.38 | $72.71 | -$24.07 | — 6-5 (11) |
88 881112ARB<$100 | Noavg 54.7¢ | $44.46 | $48.19 | +$3.73 | 0% 1-417 (418) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 54.7¢ | $22.96 | $27.69 | +$4.73 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 43¢ | $21.5 | $20.5 | -$1 | |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $52.75 | $7.23 | +$11.64 | 40% 3250-4894 (8144) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $0.61 | $2.91 | +$2.3 | 12% 37-269 (306) |
GR groth<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $2.76 | $2.5 | -$0.26 | 6% 3-46 (49) |
Invested
$1,801.49
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$332.69
Record
0%
0-48 (48)
KimchiCapitalInvested
$267.21
Value
$340
PnL
+$72.79
Record
—
9-0 (9)
0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802Invested
$118
Value
$97
PnL
-$21
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$103.38
Value
$72.71
PnL
-$24.07
Record
—
6-5 (11)
Invested
$44.46
Value
$48.19
PnL
+$3.73
Record
0%
1-417 (418)
Both legs:
Invested
$52.75
Value
$7.23
PnL
+$11.64
Record
40%
3250-4894 (8144)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.61
Value
$2.91
PnL
+$2.3
Record
12%
37-269 (306)
Invested
$2.76
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$0.26
Record
6%
3-46 (49)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.