Kimberly Powell announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 60¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$65.97

Smart Money Entry

42.7¢ → 59.5¢

+39% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$595.5

Total Shares1,092

Combined PnL+$129.25

Yes7 traders

Total Value$425.5

Total Shares944

Combined PnL-$63.28

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CosmicCedar	Noavg 50¢	$290	$339.3	+$49.3	7% 7-94 (101)
BO borntoolate.eth	Noavg 33¢	$151.86	$230.1	+$78.23	73% 182-69 (251)
RelaccsedCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$250	$207.5	-$42.5	80% 16-4 (20)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 52.6¢	$158.43	$83.89	+$5.93	40% 3250-4894 (8144)
Tenebrus7CTR<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$60.5	$46.73	-$5.58	2% 1-41 (42)
HoshinoAICTR	Yesavg 60.3¢	$230.05	$36.78	-$8.04	38% 13-21 (34)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$39.2	$33.2	-$6	39% 66-105 (171)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 47¢	$23.5	$25	+$1.5	12% 37-269 (306)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$35.1	$16.21	-$6.62	— 6-5 (11)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$29.23	$1.19	-$0.47	5% 3-63 (66)
GR groth<$100	Noavg 47¢	$0.89	$1.1	+$0.22	6% 3-46 (49)

CosmicCedar

Invested

$290

Value

$339.3

PnL

+$49.3

Record

7-94 (101)

borntoolate.eth

Invested

$151.86

Value

$230.1

PnL

+$78.23

Record

73%

182-69 (251)

RelaccsedCTR

Yes

Invested

$250

Value

$207.5

PnL

-$42.5

Record

80%

16-4 (20)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$158.43

Value

$83.89

PnL

+$5.93

Record

40%

3250-4894 (8144)

Tenebrus7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.5

Value

$46.73

PnL

-$5.58

Record

1-41 (42)

HoshinoAICTR

Yes

Invested

$230.05

Value

$36.78

PnL

-$8.04

Record

38%

13-21 (34)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.2

Value

$33.2

PnL

-$6

Record

39%

66-105 (171)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$23.5

Value

$25

PnL

+$1.5

Record

12%

37-269 (306)

lissartterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.1

Value

$16.21

PnL

-$6.62

Record

—

6-5 (11)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.23

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$0.47

Record

3-63 (66)

groth<$100

Invested

$0.89

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$0.22

Record

3-46 (49)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.