KHL: Traktor vs. Shanghai Dragons
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Traktor (100%) · Traktor at 90¢ · $334 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Traktor
5
Traktor 100%
$333.55
$0.37
63.5¢ → 89.5¢
+41% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralTraktor at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Traktor. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Traktoravg 53¢ | $179.03 | $160.58 | +$14.83 | 48% 220-236 (456) |
FL Flaznorp | Traktoravg 75¢ | $167.33 | $147.41 | -$19.92 | 50% 1390-1407 (2797) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Traktoravg 56¢ | $10.56 | $15.84 | +$5.28 | 35% 176-320 (496) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Traktoravg 84¢ | $5.3 | $5.52 | +$0.22 | 52% 5322-4827 (10149) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Traktoravg 85¢ | $4.25 | $4.2 | -$0.05 | 50% 138-137 (275) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$179.03
Value
$160.58
PnL
+$14.83
Record
48%
220-236 (456)
Invested
$167.33
Value
$147.41
PnL
-$19.92
Record
50%
1390-1407 (2797)
Invested
$10.56
Value
$15.84
PnL
+$5.28
Record
35%
176-320 (496)
Invested
$5.3
Value
$5.52
PnL
+$0.22
Record
52%
5322-4827 (10149)
Invested
$4.25
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
138-137 (275)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.