KHL: Spartak Moscow vs. Lokomotiv Yaroslavl
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Lokomotiv Yaroslavl (80%) · Lokomotiv Yaroslavl at 95¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4
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Neutral
Lokomotiv Yaroslavl
5
Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 80%
$1.0K
$19.12
54¢ → 94.5¢
+75% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralLokomotiv Yaroslavl at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Lokomotiv Yaroslavlavg 54.7¢ | $438.42 | $437.42 | -$1 | 50% 20715-20970 (41685) |
FO forecastication4 | Lokomotiv Yaroslavlavg 50¢ | $206.1 | $208.17 | +$2.06 | 50% 1337-1356 (2693) |
 poshposh | Lokomotiv Yaroslavlavg 49.1¢ | $164.41 | $185.76 | +$21.35 | 57% 12255-9317 (21572) |
FL Flaznorp | Lokomotiv Yaroslavlavg 84.8¢ | $100.89 | $90.55 | -$10.34 | 51% 24202-22938 (47140) |
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR<$100 | Spartak Moscowavg 45.8¢ | $77.62 | $84.66 | +$7.04 | 50% 524-521 (1045) |
Invested
$438.42
Value
$437.42
PnL
-$1
Record
50%
20715-20970 (41685)
Invested
$206.1
Value
$208.17
PnL
+$2.06
Record
50%
1337-1356 (2693)
poshposhInvested
$164.41
Value
$185.76
PnL
+$21.35
Record
57%
12255-9317 (21572)
Invested
$100.89
Value
$90.55
PnL
-$10.34
Record
51%
24202-22938 (47140)
Invested
$77.62
Value
$84.66
PnL
+$7.04
Record
50%
524-521 (1045)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.