KHL: Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk vs. Salavat Yulaev Ufa

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Salavat Yulaev Ufa (83%) · Salavat Yulaev Ufa at 59¢ · $267 held · ended Nov 10

Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk42¢Salavat Yulaev Ufa58¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Salavat Yulaev Ufa

Consensus Traders

Salavat Yulaev Ufa 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$266.99

Combined PnL

$7.16

Smart Money Entry

45.7¢ → 58.5¢

+28% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralSalavat Yulaev Ufa at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Salavat Yulaev Ufa

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk42%

Salavat Yulaev Ufa59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Salavat Yulaev Ufa5 traders

Total Value$183.67

Total Shares343

Combined PnL+$14.6

Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk1 trader

Total Value$31.41

Total Shares45

Combined PnL-$7.44

Salavat Yulaev Ufa — 83%Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Salavat Yulaev Ufa. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSalavat Yulaev Ufa 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSalavat Yulaev Ufa 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Salavat Yulaev Ufa 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO forecastication4<$100	Salavat Yulaev Ufaavg 49¢	$57.16	$62.99	+$5.83	11% 24-188 (212)
VeryLucky888<$100	Salavat Yulaev Ufaavg 49¢	$49	$54	+$5	49% 235-240 (475)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamskavg 60.8¢	$53.46	$51.91	-$1.55	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
└ Salavat Yulaev Ufa leg	Salavat Yulaev Ufaavg 43.3¢	$23.37	$29.14	+$5.77
└ Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk leg	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamskavg 60.8¢	$30.09	$22.77	-$7.32
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Salavat Yulaev Ufaavg 49.4¢	$43.02	$39.77	-$3.24	24% 99-314 (413)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamskavg 55.3¢	$38.85	$31.41	-$7.44	50% 157-160 (317)
dips.<$100	Salavat Yulaev Ufaavg 33¢	$13.2	$14	+$0.8	42% 200-281 (481)
CI cigarettes<$100	Salavat Yulaev Ufaavg 28¢	$6.69	$12.91	+$6.22	53% 5381-4862 (10243)

forecastication4<$100

Salavat Yulaev Ufa

Invested

$57.16

Value

$62.99

PnL

+$5.83

Record

11%

24-188 (212)

VeryLucky888<$100

Salavat Yulaev Ufa

Invested

$49

Value

$54

PnL

+$5

Record

49%

235-240 (475)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk

Invested

$53.46

Value

$51.91

PnL

-$1.55

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

Both legs:

Salavat Yulaev Ufa$23.3743.3¢+$5.77

Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk$30.0960.8¢-$7.32

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Salavat Yulaev Ufa

Invested

$43.02

Value

$39.77

PnL

-$3.24

Record

24%

99-314 (413)

lryyyCTR<$100

Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk

Invested

$38.85

Value

$31.41

PnL

-$7.44

Record

50%

157-160 (317)

dips.<$100

Salavat Yulaev Ufa

Invested

$13.2

Value

$14

PnL

+$0.8

Record

42%

200-281 (481)

cigarettes<$100

Salavat Yulaev Ufa

Invested

$6.69

Value

$12.91

PnL

+$6.22

Record

53%

5381-4862 (10243)

Research grade

NeutralSalavat Yulaev Ufa at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Salavat Yulaev Ufa

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Salavat Yulaev Ufa. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSalavat Yulaev Ufa 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSalavat Yulaev Ufa 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Salavat Yulaev Ufa 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Salavat Yulaev Ufa wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.