Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 1.4¢ · $8 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 100%
$7.57
-$35.5
Research grade
AvoidNo at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Late
169h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 7¢ | $24.5 | $4.73 | -$19.78 | — 8-9 (17) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 12.6¢ | $10.32 | $1.11 | -$9.21 | 40% 3003-4412 (7415) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 7.1¢ | $2.84 | $0.54 | -$2.3 | 50% 4490-4436 (8926) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 8.1¢ | $2.44 | $0.41 | -$2.03 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Noavg 8.8¢ | $2.64 | $0.4 | -$2.24 | 11% 35-270 (305) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 1.1¢ | $0.33 | $0.39 | +$0.06 | 79% 170-44 (214) |
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$24.5
Value
$4.73
PnL
-$19.78
Record
—
8-9 (17)
Invested
$10.32
Value
$1.11
PnL
-$9.21
Record
40%
3003-4412 (7415)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.84
Value
$0.54
PnL
-$2.3
Record
50%
4490-4436 (8926)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$2.44
Value
$0.41
PnL
-$2.03
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
Invested
$2.64
Value
$0.4
PnL
-$2.24
Record
11%
35-270 (305)
Invested
$0.33
Value
$0.39
PnL
+$0.06
Record
79%
170-44 (214)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.