KBO Playoff: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Samsung Lions (75%) · Samsung Lions at 97¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14

KT Wiz3¢Samsung Lions97¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Samsung Lions

Consensus Traders

Samsung Lions 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$48.27

Smart Money Entry

44.2¢ → 97¢

+119% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralSamsung Lions at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Samsung Lions

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

KT Wiz3%

Samsung Lions97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Samsung Lions6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,544

Combined PnL+$63.66

KT Wiz2 traders

Total Value$11.29

Total Shares63

Combined PnL-$15.39

Samsung Lions — 75%KT Wiz — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Samsung Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSamsung Lions 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSamsung Lions 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Samsung Lions 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Samsung Lionsavg 41.5¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$15.87	54% 18410-15504 (33914)
└ Samsung Lions leg	Samsung Lionsavg 41.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$20.37
└ KT Wiz leg	KT Wizavg 56.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$4.5
NO Notradecopy	Samsung Lionsavg 40¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$62.5	48% 4049-4326 (8375)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Samsung Lionsavg 43¢	$258	$246	-$12	51% 2045-1974 (4019)
OM omnibus-076daa	Samsung Lionsavg 93.1¢	$208.52	$204.1	-$4.43	50% 21519-21799 (43318)
CI cigarettes<$100	Samsung Lionsavg 61¢	$42.25	$60.21	+$17.96	53% 24138-21186 (45324)
FO forecastication4<$100	Samsung Lionsavg 42¢	$37.8	$36.9	+$0.45	50% 1406-1407 (2813)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Samsung Lionsavg 42¢	$34.44	$33.62	-$0.82	51% 26991-25572 (52563)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	KT Wizavg 57¢	$6.7	$6.7	-$0	50% 26346-25970 (52316)
dips.CTR<$100	KT Wizavg 39.2¢	$19.98	$4.59	-$15.39	47% 10970-12572 (23542)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Samsung Lions

Invested

$3,051.21

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$15.87

Record

54%

18410-15504 (33914)

Both legs:

Samsung Lions$1,627.941.5¢-$20.37

KT Wiz$1,423.3156.8¢+$4.5

Notradecopy

Samsung Lions

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$62.5

Record

48%

4049-4326 (8375)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Samsung Lions

Invested

$258

Value

$246

PnL

-$12

Record

51%

2045-1974 (4019)

omnibus-076daa

Samsung Lions

Invested

$208.52

Value

$204.1

PnL

-$4.43

Record

50%

21519-21799 (43318)

cigarettes<$100

Samsung Lions

Invested

$42.25

Value

$60.21

PnL

+$17.96

Record

53%

24138-21186 (45324)

forecastication4<$100

Samsung Lions

Invested

$37.8

Value

$36.9

PnL

+$0.45

Record

50%

1406-1407 (2813)

Flaznorp<$100

Samsung Lions

Invested

$34.44

Value

$33.62

PnL

-$0.82

Record

51%

26991-25572 (52563)

sentrioCTR<$100

KT Wiz

Invested

$6.7

Value

$6.7

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

26346-25970 (52316)

dips.CTR<$100

KT Wiz

Invested

$19.98

Value

$4.59

PnL

-$15.39

Record

47%

10970-12572 (23542)

Research grade

NeutralSamsung Lions at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Samsung Lions

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Samsung Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSamsung Lions 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSamsung Lions 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Samsung Lions 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Samsung Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.