Will Justin Herbert have 3,599.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 87¢ · $448 held · ends Jan 27, 2027

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Wed, Jan 27, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$447.77

Combined PnL

$100.59

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$441.83

Total Shares508

Combined PnL+$106.45

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.94

Total Shares46

Combined PnL-$5.86

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Robbb	Noavg 66¢	$335.38	$441.83	+$106.45	— 1-0 (1)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$9.52	$3.64	-$5.88	— 1-9 (10)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$1.02	$1.21	+$0.19	23% 80-263 (343)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$1.26	$1.09	-$0.17	52% 5134-4698 (9832)

Robbb

Invested

$335.38

Value

$441.83

PnL

+$106.45

Record

—

1-0 (1)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.52

Value

$3.64

PnL

-$5.88

Record

—

1-9 (10)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$1.21

PnL

+$0.19

Record

23%

80-263 (343)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.26

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$0.17

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.