Will Jensen Huang's resignation or removal be announced and Nvidia's market cap be below $4T at the end of 2026?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 76¢ · $522 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
1 arb excluded
$521.64
$59.58
62.1¢ → 75.5¢
+22% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 48.2¢ | $180.24 | $141.43 | -$34.24 | 41% 3164-4511 (7675) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 51¢ | $53.39 | $78.98 | +$26.2 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 48.2¢ | $122.89 | $62.45 | -$60.44 | |
 TBill1 | Noavg 66.2¢ | $102.19 | $116.56 | +$14.38 | 0% 0-106 (106) |
 balthazar | Noavg 61.4¢ | $85.87 | $105.56 | +$19.69 | 51% 4764-4566 (9330) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 72.4¢ | $52.95 | $55.22 | +$2.27 | 32% 2879-6243 (9122) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 46.2¢ | $27.84 | $45.75 | +$17.91 | 38% 3372-5405 (8777) |
 HoshinoAICTR<$100 | Yesavg 46.1¢ | $51.83 | $35.48 | -$2.01 | 42% 13-18 (31) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 63.2¢ | $8.22 | $9.82 | +$1.59 | 40% 1359-2019 (3378) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 36.9¢ | $4.06 | $8.36 | +$4.3 | 79% 479-127 (606) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $2.02 | $3.47 | +$1.45 | 26% 1244-3525 (4769) |
Invested
$180.24
Value
$141.43
PnL
-$34.24
Record
41%
3164-4511 (7675)
Both legs:
TBill1Invested
$102.19
Value
$116.56
PnL
+$14.38
Record
0%
0-106 (106)
balthazarInvested
$85.87
Value
$105.56
PnL
+$19.69
Record
51%
4764-4566 (9330)
Invested
$52.95
Value
$55.22
PnL
+$2.27
Record
32%
2879-6243 (9122)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$27.84
Value
$45.75
PnL
+$17.91
Record
38%
3372-5405 (8777)
HoshinoAICTR<$100Invested
$51.83
Value
$35.48
PnL
-$2.01
Record
42%
13-18 (31)
Invested
$8.22
Value
$9.82
PnL
+$1.59
Record
40%
1359-2019 (3378)
Invested
$4.06
Value
$8.36
PnL
+$4.3
Record
79%
479-127 (606)
Invested
$2.02
Value
$3.47
PnL
+$1.45
Record
26%
1244-3525 (4769)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.