Will Jensen Huang's resignation or removal be announced and Nvidia's market cap be above $4T at the end of 2026?

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (10%) · Yes at 63¢ · $549 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes63¢No37¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 10%

Total Value

$549.09

Combined PnL

-$37.04

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$373.82

Total Shares589

Combined PnL+$38.78

No9 traders

Total Value$175.26

Total Shares533

Combined PnL-$75.82

Yes — 10%No — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TBill1	Yesavg 56.9¢	$335.04	$373.82	+$38.78	0% 0-106 (106)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 44.9¢	$53.9	$38.4	-$15.5	51% 4764-4566 (9330)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 50.6¢	$50.56	$32.97	-$17.59	38% 3372-5405 (8777)
HoshinoAICTR<$100	Noavg 47.7¢	$47.09	$31.62	-$15.47	42% 13-18 (31)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 39.8¢	$35.8	$28.8	-$7	32% 2879-6243 (9122)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$23.91	$16.36	-$7.55	41% 3164-4511 (7675)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$24.44	$15.04	-$9.4	79% 479-127 (606)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$6.6	$6.4	-$0.2	24% 82-266 (348)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 46.4¢	$6.03	$4.16	-$1.87	40% 1359-2019 (3378)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Noavg 60¢	$2.75	$1.51	-$1.24	26% 1244-3525 (4769)

TBill1

Yes

Invested

$335.04

Value

$373.82

PnL

+$38.78

Record

0-106 (106)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$53.9

Value

$38.4

PnL

-$15.5

Record

51%

4764-4566 (9330)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$50.56

Value

$32.97

PnL

-$17.59

Record

38%

3372-5405 (8777)

HoshinoAICTR<$100

Invested

$47.09

Value

$31.62

PnL

-$15.47

Record

42%

13-18 (31)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$35.8

Value

$28.8

PnL

-$7

Record

32%

2879-6243 (9122)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$23.91

Value

$16.36

PnL

-$7.55

Record

41%

3164-4511 (7675)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$24.44

Value

$15.04

PnL

-$9.4

Record

79%

479-127 (606)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.4

PnL

-$0.2

Record

24%

82-266 (348)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$6.03

Value

$4.16

PnL

-$1.87

Record

40%

1359-2019 (3378)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Invested

$2.75

Value

$1.51

PnL

-$1.24

Record

26%

1244-3525 (4769)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.9%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.