Will Jensen Huang's resignation or removal not be announced and Nvidia's market cap be below $4T at the end of 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $396 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$396.4
$6.43
97.3¢ → 97.6¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99¢ | $138.59 | $138.59 | +$0 | 51% 4764-4566 (9330) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 98.5¢ | $99.74 | $100.29 | +$0.55 | 38% 3372-5405 (8777) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $89.1 | $89.1 | +$0 | 32% 2879-6243 (9122) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $35.5 | $35.66 | +$0.16 | 79% 479-127 (606) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $14.18 | $19.9 | +$5.71 | 41% 3164-4511 (7675) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $12.87 | $12.87 | -$0 | 40% 1359-2019 (3378) |
balthazarInvested
$138.59
Value
$138.59
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
4764-4566 (9330)
LucerysInvested
$99.74
Value
$100.29
PnL
+$0.55
Record
38%
3372-5405 (8777)
Invested
$89.1
Value
$89.1
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
2879-6243 (9122)
Invested
$35.5
Value
$35.66
PnL
+$0.16
Record
79%
479-127 (606)
Invested
$14.18
Value
$19.9
PnL
+$5.71
Record
41%
3164-4511 (7675)
Invested
$12.87
Value
$12.87
PnL
-$0
Record
40%
1359-2019 (3378)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.