Will Jensen Huang's resignation or removal not be announced and Nvidia's market cap be above $4T at the end of 2026?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 91¢ · $232 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$232.01
-$0.63
92.3¢ → 90.5¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 91.4¢ | $81.61 | $83.06 | +$1.45 | 38% 3372-5405 (8777) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 93.2¢ | $83.87 | $82.35 | -$1.52 | 32% 2879-6243 (9122) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 93.1¢ | $29.79 | $29.28 | -$0.51 | 79% 479-127 (606) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $18.2 | $18.3 | +$0.1 | 51% 4764-4566 (9330) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 92.2¢ | $11.99 | $11.9 | -$0.1 | 40% 1359-2019 (3378) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $4.22 | $4.27 | +$0.05 | 26% 1244-3525 (4769) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.8¢ | $2.95 | $2.86 | -$0.1 | 41% 3164-4511 (7675) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$81.61
Value
$83.06
PnL
+$1.45
Record
38%
3372-5405 (8777)
Invested
$83.87
Value
$82.35
PnL
-$1.52
Record
32%
2879-6243 (9122)
Invested
$29.79
Value
$29.28
PnL
-$0.51
Record
79%
479-127 (606)
balthazar<$100Invested
$18.2
Value
$18.3
PnL
+$0.1
Record
51%
4764-4566 (9330)
Invested
$11.99
Value
$11.9
PnL
-$0.1
Record
40%
1359-2019 (3378)
Invested
$4.22
Value
$4.27
PnL
+$0.05
Record
26%
1244-3525 (4769)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$2.86
PnL
-$0.1
Record
41%
3164-4511 (7675)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.