Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal from NVIDIA board by December 31, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 43¢ · $98 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$98.41
-$5.86
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 65.9¢ | $63.92 | $55.26 | -$8.66 | 40% 3217-4824 (8041) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 35.1¢ | $17.92 | $19.64 | +$1.71 | 12% 34-241 (275) |
MA MaxEntCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $17.89 | $18.12 | +$0.24 | — 1-0 (1) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $2.98 | $3.47 | +$0.5 | — 3-4 (7) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $1.57 | $1.92 | +$0.35 | 38% 58-96 (154) |
Invested
$63.92
Value
$55.26
PnL
-$8.66
Record
40%
3217-4824 (8041)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$17.92
Value
$19.64
PnL
+$1.71
Record
12%
34-241 (275)
Invested
$17.89
Value
$18.12
PnL
+$0.24
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$2.98
Value
$3.47
PnL
+$0.5
Record
—
3-4 (7)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$1.57
Value
$1.92
PnL
+$0.35
Record
38%
58-96 (154)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.