Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 30, 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 71¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$4.4K
$8.9
69.3¢ → 70.5¢
+2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Yesavg 69.8¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$53.85 | 53% 5779-5161 (10940) |
PI pieped | Yesavg 71¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$10 | 0% 0-45 (45) |
 Car | Yesavg 66.5¢ | $1.2K | $796.45 | +$63.8 | 69% 1400-643 (2043) |
 Parz1vaI | Yesavg 66¢ | $297.7 | $304.47 | +$6.77 | 73% 1113-422 (1535) |
 HoshinoAI | Yesavg 70.8¢ | $515.16 | $121.75 | -$1.31 | 42% 13-18 (31) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 67¢ | $62.54 | $65.16 | +$2.62 | 41% 3158-4508 (7666) |
 Zaratustra<$100 | Yesavg 67¢ | $58.8 | $59.68 | +$0.88 | — |
Invested
$1,653.97
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$53.85
Record
53%
5779-5161 (10940)
Invested
$1,419.99
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$10
Record
0%
0-45 (45)
CarInvested
$1,230.79
Value
$796.45
PnL
+$63.8
Record
69%
1400-643 (2043)
Parz1vaIInvested
$297.7
Value
$304.47
PnL
+$6.77
Record
73%
1113-422 (1535)
HoshinoAIInvested
$515.16
Value
$121.75
PnL
-$1.31
Record
42%
13-18 (31)
Invested
$62.54
Value
$65.16
PnL
+$2.62
Record
41%
3158-4508 (7666)
Zaratustra<$100Invested
$58.8
Value
$59.68
PnL
+$0.88
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.