Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?

9 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 59¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 13

Yes42¢No58¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$19.9K

Combined PnL

$468.29

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 58.5¢

-11% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 20 top traders (45%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares18,152

Combined PnL-$275.83

Yes11 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares21,972

Combined PnL+$744.12

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SA SaylorMoon	Noavg 66.9¢	$5.7K	$5.5K	-$205.5	0% 0-50 (50)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 33.8¢	$3.6K	$4.1K	+$498.64	27% 41-112 (153)
Warren-BuffettCTR	Yesavg 34.3¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$89.15	—
Car	Noavg 65¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$21.49	69% 1400-643 (2043)
TBill1	Noavg 61.4¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$104.51	0% 0-106 (106)
Rex416	Noavg 67¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$90.86	— 13-3 (16)
JO JokerTheClownCTR	Yesavg 32.7¢	$708.26	$790.29	+$82.03	2% 4-192 (196)
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 38¢	$772.31	$782.47	+$10.16	60% 497-335 (832)
Nostdam	Noavg 64.3¢	$730.4	$699.11	-$31.29	4% 5-109 (114)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 65.9¢	$725	$698.5	-$26.5	73% 1113-422 (1535)
Moond	Noavg 66.5¢	$664.99	$649.99	-$15	0% 0-27 (27)
Optimus-CTR	Yesavg 31.8¢	$415.81	$477.42	+$61.61	— 0-6 (6)
ifyoulovemeCTR	Yesavg 36.8¢	$249.99	$230.94	-$19.05	52% 264-248 (512)
G.HchenCTR	Yesavg 35.8¢	$179	$187.5	+$8.5	3% 3-99 (102)
NE NewshoundCTR	Yesavg 42¢	$96	$114.29	+$18.29	0% 0-161 (161)
ME melonmanmCTR	Yesavg 32.3¢	$100.14	$94.86	-$5.28	2% 2-109 (111)
RL RLWG<$100	Noavg 67.7¢	$65.8	$63.7	-$2.1	67% 1659-813 (2472)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$18.14	$18.14	-$0	10% 4-35 (39)
HoshinoAI	Noavg 64¢	$241.35	$13	+$12.38	42% 13-18 (31)
0X 0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4CTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$5.92	$6.01	+$0.08	—

SaylorMoon

Invested

$5,687.98

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$205.5

Record

0-50 (50)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,621.28

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$498.64

Record

27%

41-112 (153)

Warren-BuffettCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,367.65

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$89.15

Record

—

Car

Invested

$1,443.57

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$21.49

Record

69%

1400-643 (2043)

TBill1

Invested

$1,265.1

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$104.51

Record

0-106 (106)

Rex416

Invested

$1,358.91

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$90.86

Record

—

13-3 (16)

JokerTheClownCTR

Yes

Invested

$708.26

Value

$790.29

PnL

+$82.03

Record

4-192 (196)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$772.31

Value

$782.47

PnL

+$10.16

Record

60%

497-335 (832)

Nostdam

Invested

$730.4

Value

$699.11

PnL

-$31.29

Record

5-109 (114)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$725

Value

$698.5

PnL

-$26.5

Record

73%

1113-422 (1535)

Moond

Invested

$664.99

Value

$649.99

PnL

-$15

Record

0-27 (27)

Optimus-CTR

Yes

Invested

$415.81

Value

$477.42

PnL

+$61.61

Record

—

0-6 (6)

ifyoulovemeCTR

Yes

Invested

$249.99

Value

$230.94

PnL

-$19.05

Record

52%

264-248 (512)

G.HchenCTR

Yes

Invested

$179

Value

$187.5

PnL

+$8.5

Record

3-99 (102)

NewshoundCTR

Yes

Invested

$96

Value

$114.29

PnL

+$18.29

Record

0-161 (161)

melonmanmCTR

Yes

Invested

$100.14

Value

$94.86

PnL

-$5.28

Record

2-109 (111)

RLWG<$100

Invested

$65.8

Value

$63.7

PnL

-$2.1

Record

67%

1659-813 (2472)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.14

Value

$18.14

PnL

-$0

Record

10%

4-35 (39)

HoshinoAI

Invested

$241.35

Value

$13

PnL

+$12.38

Record

42%

13-18 (31)

0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.92

Value

$6.01

PnL

+$0.08

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

9 of 20 top traders (45%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.