Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by March 31, 2027?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 79¢ · $4K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

-$0.76

Smart Money Entry

77.2¢ → 78.5¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares4,348

Combined PnL+$14.76

Yes2 traders

Total Value$687.4

Total Shares3,055

Combined PnL-$15.52

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DE deltasniper	Noavg 77¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$10	—
Lolakis	Noavg 76¢	$760	$775	+$15	0% 0-29 (29)
DragontreeCTR	Yesavg 23¢	$702.1	$686.56	-$15.54	— 0-2 (2)
StarMaster	Noavg 80¢	$600	$581.25	-$18.75	—
Parz1vaI	Noavg 75¢	$222.63	$230.17	+$7.54	— 0-2 (2)
RA rainbowlilies	Noavg 78¢	$189.66	$182.24	+$1.27	— 0-3 (3)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 78¢	$50	$49.68	-$0.32	69% 48-22 (70)
HoshinoAI<$100	Noavg 77¢	$3.35	$3.38	+$0.02	—
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$0.83	$0.85	+$0.02	— 0-1 (1)

deltasniper

Invested

$1,540

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$10

Record

—

Lolakis

Invested

$760

Value

$775

PnL

+$15

Record

0-29 (29)

DragontreeCTR

Yes

Invested

$702.1

Value

$686.56

PnL

-$15.54

Record

—

0-2 (2)

StarMaster

Invested

$600

Value

$581.25

PnL

-$18.75

Record

—

Parz1vaI

Invested

$222.63

Value

$230.17

PnL

+$7.54

Record

—

0-2 (2)

rainbowlilies

Invested

$189.66

Value

$182.24

PnL

+$1.27

Record

—

0-3 (3)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$49.68

PnL

-$0.32

Record

69%

48-22 (70)

HoshinoAI<$100

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.38

PnL

+$0.02

Record

—

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.83

Value

$0.85

PnL

+$0.02

Record

—

0-1 (1)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.