Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2027?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 64¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$7.3K
$224.15
61¢ → 64¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
25 254321758 | Noavg 61¢ | $5.5K | $5.6K | +$92.4 | 68% 502-236 (738) |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR | Yesavg 27.5¢ | $444.82 | $615.6 | +$170.78 | 45% 13-16 (29) |
 LolakisCTR | Yesavg 37.7¢ | $806.1 | $577.9 | -$228.2 | 3% 1-31 (32) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Yesavg 21¢ | $210 | $380 | +$170 | 53% 5667-5092 (10759) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 33.9¢ | $145.3 | $164.22 | +$18.92 | 41% 3119-4481 (7600) |
 TBill1<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $2.84 | $3.09 | +$0.25 | 0% 0-106 (106) |
Invested
$5,484.15
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$92.4
Record
68%
502-236 (738)
Invested
$444.82
Value
$615.6
PnL
+$170.78
Record
45%
13-16 (29)
LolakisCTRInvested
$806.1
Value
$577.9
PnL
-$228.2
Record
3%
1-31 (32)
Invested
$210
Value
$380
PnL
+$170
Record
53%
5667-5092 (10759)
Invested
$145.3
Value
$164.22
PnL
+$18.92
Record
41%
3119-4481 (7600)
TBill1<$100Invested
$2.84
Value
$3.09
PnL
+$0.25
Record
0%
0-106 (106)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.