Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: 1st Half O/U 0.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$72.43

Smart Money Entry

46.2¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,614

Combined PnL+$75.36

Over2 traders

Total Value$108.58

Total Shares115

Combined PnL-$2.93

Under — 78%Over — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Underavg 44.6¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$95.29	54% 56561-48730 (105291)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 50¢	$150	$148.5	-$1.5	48% 912-980 (1892)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 59.4¢	$167.6	$139.59	-$28.01	72% 2399-924 (3323)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Overavg 99¢	$105.81	$106.35	+$0.53	95% 23010-1156 (24166)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$40	$49.5	+$9.5	59% 45754-32097 (77851)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 59.4¢	$11.47	$12.17	+$0.7	49% 7885-8203 (16088)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 57¢	$6.27	$5.45	-$0.82	53% 4540-4093 (8633)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Underavg 60¢	$4.09	$4.29	+$0.2	60% 3346-2256 (5602)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Overavg 74¢	$5.69	$2.23	-$3.46	85% 5274-898 (6172)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$1,527.6

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$95.29

Record

54%

56561-48730 (105291)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$150

Value

$148.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

48%

912-980 (1892)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$167.6

Value

$139.59

PnL

-$28.01

Record

72%

2399-924 (3323)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Over

Invested

$105.81

Value

$106.35

PnL

+$0.53

Record

95%

23010-1156 (24166)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40

Value

$49.5

PnL

+$9.5

Record

59%

45754-32097 (77851)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.47

Value

$12.17

PnL

+$0.7

Record

49%

7885-8203 (16088)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.27

Value

$5.45

PnL

-$0.82

Record

53%

4540-4093 (8633)

shiifooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.09

Value

$4.29

PnL

+$0.2

Record

60%

3346-2256 (5602)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Over

Invested

$5.69

Value

$2.23

PnL

-$3.46

Record

85%

5274-898 (6172)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.