Will Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kawasaki Frontale end in a draw?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 96¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$189.9

Smart Money Entry

78.8¢ → 95.5¢

+21% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,477

Combined PnL+$192.93

Yes5 traders

Total Value$51.05

Total Shares180

Combined PnL-$3.04

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 79.1¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$179.59	51% 27041-25614 (52655)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Noavg 78.1¢	$172.11	$167.91	-$4.2	46% 1775-2086 (3861)
└ No leg	Noavg 78.1¢	$148.85	$132.46	-$16.39
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20¢	$23.26	$35.46	+$12.19
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$88.4	$77.76	-$10.65	49% 1807-1885 (3692)
DI dips.<$100	Noavg 72.8¢	$42.59	$54.11	+$11.52	47% 10993-12612 (23605)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 78¢	$39.29	$51.76	+$12.47	53% 24313-21381 (45694)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$19.9	$17.86	-$2.03	49% 1765-1864 (3629)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 31.4¢	$16.3	$15.82	-$0.48	50% 1821-1809 (3630)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$13.43	$14.12	+$0.69	51% 38177-37419 (75596)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 35.1¢	$2.06	$1.79	-$0.27	33% 1190-2372 (3562)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$2.4	$1.46	-$0.94	64% 5375-2993 (8368)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,013.96

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$179.59

Record

51%

27041-25614 (52655)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Invested

$172.11

Value

$167.91

PnL

-$4.2

Record

46%

1775-2086 (3861)

Both legs:

No$148.8578.1¢-$16.39

Yes$23.2620¢+$12.19

Venusian<$100

Invested

$88.4

Value

$77.76

PnL

-$10.65

Record

49%

1807-1885 (3692)

dips.<$100

Invested

$42.59

Value

$54.11

PnL

+$11.52

Record

47%

10993-12612 (23605)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.29

Value

$51.76

PnL

+$12.47

Record

53%

24313-21381 (45694)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.9

Value

$17.86

PnL

-$2.03

Record

49%

1765-1864 (3629)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.3

Value

$15.82

PnL

-$0.48

Record

50%

1821-1809 (3630)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.43

Value

$14.12

PnL

+$0.69

Record

51%

38177-37419 (75596)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.06

Value

$1.79

PnL

-$0.27

Record

33%

1190-2372 (3562)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$1.46

PnL

-$0.94

Record

64%

5375-2993 (8368)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.