Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kawasaki Frontale: Both Teams to Score
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 25%
$2.1K
-$246.09
65.5¢ → 100¢
+53% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 65.5¢ | $1.3K | $2.0K | +$616.11 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Noavg 40.2¢ | $141.1 | $145.81 | +$4.71 | 49% 1756-1850 (3606) |
VE VenusianCTR | Noavg 35.2¢ | $650.58 | $9.24 | -$641.35 | 49% 1790-1872 (3662) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Noavg 39.2¢ | $211.17 | $2.69 | -$208.48 | 48% 1730-1861 (3591) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $1.65 | $1.65 | +$0.05 | 49% 14964-15854 (30818) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $1.42 | $1.45 | +$0.03 | 58% 47408-34193 (81601) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $9.57 | $0.15 | -$9.43 | 51% 38171-37411 (75582) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 39.2¢ | $7.84 | $0.1 | -$7.74 | 50% 1808-1796 (3604) |
Invested
$1,344.9
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$616.11
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
Invested
$141.1
Value
$145.81
PnL
+$4.71
Record
49%
1756-1850 (3606)
Invested
$650.58
Value
$9.24
PnL
-$641.35
Record
49%
1790-1872 (3662)
Invested
$211.17
Value
$2.69
PnL
-$208.48
Record
48%
1730-1861 (3591)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$1.65
PnL
+$0.05
Record
49%
14964-15854 (30818)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$1.42
Value
$1.45
PnL
+$0.03
Record
58%
47408-34193 (81601)
Invested
$9.57
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$9.43
Record
51%
38171-37411 (75582)
Invested
$7.84
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$7.74
Record
50%
1808-1796 (3604)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.