Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-11-08?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 67¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Yes67¢No33¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

24.5¢ → 67¢

+174% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,444

Combined PnL+$1.9K

No6 traders

Total Value$104.11

Total Shares270

Combined PnL-$76.3

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 69.3¢	$5.8K	$4.0K	$-1.8K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ No leg	Noavg 69.3¢	$4.7K	$2.1K	$-2.5K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.4¢	$1.2K	$1.9K	+$710.89
WI Winning2...	Yesavg 24¢	$600	$1.7K	+$1.1K	33% 1175-2411 (3586)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 25¢	$483.01	$1.2K	+$743.84	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Yesavg 41.5¢	$391.41	$337.66	-$53.76	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
└ No leg	Noavg 63.2¢	$180.38	$218.27	+$37.89
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41.5¢	$211.03	$119.38	-$91.65
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 67.5¢	$126.25	$68.3	-$57.95	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
dips.CTR<$100	Noavg 69.1¢	$22.11	$19.36	-$2.75	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 58.4¢	$15.78	$8.24	-$7.55	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 81¢	$13.83	$5.38	-$8.45	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$1.17	$4.46	+$3.29	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100	Yesavg 52.2¢	$3.06	$2.32	-$0.75	33% 1194-2378 (3572)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$1.35	$1.58	+$0.22	64% 5377-2997 (8374)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$1.08	$1.26	+$0.18	50% 26504-26107 (52611)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$5,819.51

Value

$4.0K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

No$4,662.3369.3¢$-2.5K

Yes$1,157.1842.4¢+$710.89

Winning2...

Yes

Invested

$600

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

33%

1175-2411 (3586)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$483.01

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$743.84

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$391.41

Value

$337.66

PnL

-$53.76

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

Both legs:

No$180.3863.2¢+$37.89

Yes$211.0341.5¢-$91.65

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$126.25

Value

$68.3

PnL

-$57.95

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

dips.CTR<$100

Invested

$22.11

Value

$19.36

PnL

-$2.75

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$15.78

Value

$8.24

PnL

-$7.55

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$13.83

Value

$5.38

PnL

-$8.45

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.17

Value

$4.46

PnL

+$3.29

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.06

Value

$2.32

PnL

-$0.75

Record

33%

1194-2378 (3572)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.58

PnL

+$0.22

Record

64%

5377-2997 (8374)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.26

PnL

+$0.18

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.