Will FC Tōkyō vs. Kashima Antlers end in a draw?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$229.61

Smart Money Entry

81.2¢ → 97¢

+19% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,563

Combined PnL+$239.18

Yes6 traders

Total Value$22.5

Total Shares126

Combined PnL-$9.57

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 80.7¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$260.87	51% 26991-25572 (52563)
SP spyGoodLuck77	Noavg 82.8¢	$312.5	$301.78	-$10.72	62% 1916-1163 (3079)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$43.29	$35.06	-$8.23	49% 1756-1850 (3606)
dips.<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$31.14	$31.02	-$0.13	47% 10970-12572 (23542)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$30.57	$26.83	-$3.74	48% 1730-1861 (3591)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Noavg 68.6¢	$15.74	$16.87	+$1.13	46% 1755-2052 (3807)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$12.74	$7.1	-$5.63	53% 24138-21186 (45324)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.8¢	$7.3	$6.72	-$0.58	49% 1790-1872 (3662)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.8¢	$5.66	$3.3	-$2.36	50% 28862-28672 (57534)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 31.1¢	$3.11	$2.65	-$0.45	50% 1808-1796 (3604)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 39.2¢	$2.06	$1.39	-$0.67	33% 1190-2369 (3559)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$1.2	$1.33	+$0.13	47% 9510-10646 (20156)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,757.9

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$260.87

Record

51%

26991-25572 (52563)

spyGoodLuck77

Invested

$312.5

Value

$301.78

PnL

-$10.72

Record

62%

1916-1163 (3079)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$43.29

Value

$35.06

PnL

-$8.23

Record

49%

1756-1850 (3606)

dips.<$100

Invested

$31.14

Value

$31.02

PnL

-$0.13

Record

47%

10970-12572 (23542)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$30.57

Value

$26.83

PnL

-$3.74

Record

48%

1730-1861 (3591)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Invested

$15.74

Value

$16.87

PnL

+$1.13

Record

46%

1755-2052 (3807)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.74

Value

$7.1

PnL

-$5.63

Record

53%

24138-21186 (45324)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.3

Value

$6.72

PnL

-$0.58

Record

49%

1790-1872 (3662)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.66

Value

$3.3

PnL

-$2.36

Record

50%

28862-28672 (57534)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.11

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$0.45

Record

50%

1808-1796 (3604)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.06

Value

$1.39

PnL

-$0.67

Record

33%

1190-2369 (3559)

lryyyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.33

PnL

+$0.13

Record

47%

9510-10646 (20156)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.