Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-11-07?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 47¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 7

Yes54¢No46¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$539.46

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 46.5¢

-16% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes54%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares6,834

Combined PnL-$538.39

Yes1 trader

Total Value$8.18

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$1.07

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 55.3¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$199.92	50% 28847-28660 (57507)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 54.2¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$147.21	51% 26884-25495 (52379)
RN1CTR	Noavg 54¢	$846.72	$729.12	-$117.6	53% 62075-54349 (116424)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Noavg 51¢	$207.42	$300.04	+$92.62	46% 1717-2011 (3728)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.5¢	$97.68	$193.56	+$95.89
└ No leg	Noavg 51¢	$109.75	$106.48	-$3.27
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 54¢	$157.78	$144.63	-$13.15	49% 14959-15843 (30802)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Noavg 77.9¢	$141.25	$112.49	-$28.76	48% 1720-1837 (3557)
└ No leg	Noavg 77.9¢	$95.87	$70.78	-$25.09
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46.2¢	$45.38	$41.71	-$3.67
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 77.9¢	$84.73	$83.99	-$0.74	49% 1740-1836 (3576)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 77.1¢	$78.48	$48.37	-$30.12	50% 1794-1776 (3570)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 77.9¢	$76.01	$46.36	-$29.66	49% 1774-1854 (3628)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Yesavg 45.2¢	$9.25	$8.18	-$1.07	59% 33150-23318 (56468)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$1,418.53

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$199.92

Record

50%

28847-28660 (57507)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$1,312.06

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$147.21

Record

51%

26884-25495 (52379)

RN1CTR

Invested

$846.72

Value

$729.12

PnL

-$117.6

Record

53%

62075-54349 (116424)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Invested

$207.42

Value

$300.04

PnL

+$92.62

Record

46%

1717-2011 (3728)

Both legs:

Yes$97.6825.5¢+$95.89

No$109.7551¢-$3.27

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$157.78

Value

$144.63

PnL

-$13.15

Record

49%

14959-15843 (30802)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Invested

$141.25

Value

$112.49

PnL

-$28.76

Record

48%

1720-1837 (3557)

Both legs:

No$95.8777.9¢-$25.09

Yes$45.3846.2¢-$3.67

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$84.73

Value

$83.99

PnL

-$0.74

Record

49%

1740-1836 (3576)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$78.48

Value

$48.37

PnL

-$30.12

Record

50%

1794-1776 (3570)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$76.01

Value

$46.36

PnL

-$29.66

Record

49%

1774-1854 (3628)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.25

Value

$8.18

PnL

-$1.07

Record

59%

33150-23318 (56468)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.