Will Avispa Fukuoka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 85¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7

Yes85¢No15¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$243.77

Smart Money Entry

66.3¢ → 85¢

+28% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes85%

No15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,729

Combined PnL-$129.58

No5 traders

Total Value$513.43

Total Shares1,281

Combined PnL-$114.19

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 78.7¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$216.63	51% 26991-25572 (52563)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Noavg 69.5¢	$279.61	$283.04	+$3.43	46% 1755-2052 (3807)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 38.6¢	$296.43	$180.4	-$116.03	50% 28862-28672 (57534)
LI Limousin	Yesavg 30¢	$87.84	$176.94	+$89.09	50% 1808-1796 (3604)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$94.56	$91.03	-$3.21	49% 1790-1872 (3662)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30¢	$51.9	$48.39	-$3.51
└ No leg	Noavg 72¢	$42.66	$42.64	+$0.3
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 30.5¢	$53.4	$51.64	-$1.76	48% 1730-1861 (3591)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 71¢	$19.99	$20.28	-$0.14	53% 2679-2359 (5038)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 18.6¢	$21.04	$19.26	-$1.78	49% 14964-15854 (30818)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$10.12	$10.45	+$0.33	47% 9510-10646 (20156)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$5.7	$5.42	-$0.28	49% 1756-1850 (3606)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,413.64

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$216.63

Record

51%

26991-25572 (52563)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Invested

$279.61

Value

$283.04

PnL

+$3.43

Record

46%

1755-2052 (3807)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$296.43

Value

$180.4

PnL

-$116.03

Record

50%

28862-28672 (57534)

Limousin

Yes

Invested

$87.84

Value

$176.94

PnL

+$89.09

Record

50%

1808-1796 (3604)

VenusianARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.56

Value

$91.03

PnL

-$3.21

Record

49%

1790-1872 (3662)

Both legs:

Invested

$53.4

Value

$51.64

PnL

-$1.76

Record

48%

1730-1861 (3591)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$19.99

Value

$20.28

PnL

-$0.14

Record

53%

2679-2359 (5038)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$21.04

Value

$19.26

PnL

-$1.78

Record

49%

14964-15854 (30818)

lryyyCTR<$100

Invested

$10.12

Value

$10.45

PnL

+$0.33

Record

47%

9510-10646 (20156)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.42

PnL

-$0.28

Record

49%

1756-1850 (3606)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.