Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

FC Ryukyu vs. Kochi United SC: O/U 1.5

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 45¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 15

Over55¢Under45¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 86%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.7K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

22.2¢ → 45¢

+103% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares4,982

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Over1 trader

Total Value$47.24

Total Shares105

Combined PnL+$6.1

Under — 86%Over — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+74 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 54.3¢	$5.6K	$6.2K	+$592.29	49% 4576-4835 (9411)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.3¢	$4.6K	$3.8K	-$785.12
└ Under leg	Underavg 22.9¢	$985.94	$2.4K	+$1.4K
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 54.1¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	+$260.44	52% 2443-2220 (4663)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.1¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$375.6
└ Under leg	Underavg 31.3¢	$837.75	$1.5K	+$636.04
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Underavg 23.9¢	$895.98	$1.6K	+$739.1	47% 1165-1328 (2493)
└ Under leg	Underavg 23.9¢	$567.83	$1.3K	+$739.1
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$328.15	$328.15	+$0
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 20¢	$566.63	$1.6K	+$991.6	38% 1289-2127 (3416)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Underavg 24¢	$367.64	$842.5	+$474.86	40% 155-229 (384)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 32.9¢	$139.03	$217.89	+$78.86	38% 1316-2144 (3460)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$27.76	$76.34	+$48.58	48% 2479-2702 (5181)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$24.96	$68.64	+$43.68	37% 1308-2191 (3499)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 39.2¢	$41.15	$47.24	+$6.1	35% 612-1118 (1730)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$4.76	$6.09	+$1.33	46% 3134-3672 (6806)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,589.09

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$592.29

Record

49%

4576-4835 (9411)

Both legs:

Over$4,603.1554.3¢-$785.12

Under$985.9422.9¢+$1.4K

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,080.7

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$260.44

Record

52%

2443-2220 (4663)

Both legs:

Over$1,882.6154.1¢-$375.6

Under$837.7531.3¢+$636.04

SnakeBallARB<$100

Under

Invested

$895.98

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$739.1

Record

47%

1165-1328 (2493)

Both legs:

Under$567.8323.9¢+$739.1

Over$328.1545¢+$0

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$566.63

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$991.6

Record

38%

1289-2127 (3416)

mouzsynapseCTR

Under

Invested

$367.64

Value

$842.5

PnL

+$474.86

Record

40%

155-229 (384)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$139.03

Value

$217.89

PnL

+$78.86

Record

38%

1316-2144 (3460)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.76

Value

$76.34

PnL

+$48.58

Record

48%

2479-2702 (5181)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.96

Value

$68.64

PnL

+$43.68

Record

37%

1308-2191 (3499)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$41.15

Value

$47.24

PnL

+$6.1

Record

35%

612-1118 (1730)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.76

Value

$6.09

PnL

+$1.33

Record

46%

3134-3672 (6806)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 45%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+74 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.